(BSS/AFP) - Myanmar`s military junta has announced plans for elections in December or January -- scheduling the first poll since it seized power in a bloody 2021 coup that plunged the country into civil war.

But with the junta overseeing the vote, much of the country out of government hands, and the most prominent opposition figure -- Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi -- in jail, the prospects for democracy seem bleak.

Here is what we know so far:

- What is the promised poll? -

Junta chief General Min Aung Hlaing announced the dates on Friday during a state visit to Belarus.

The junta seized power after making unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud, ousting Suu Kyi`s civilian government and ending a rare experiment with democracy.

"We had to declare a state of emergency and temporarily take responsibility for the country," Min Aung Hlaing said according to state media.

"Therefore, we plan to hold a free and fair election soon, under the law."

Min Aung Hlaing said 53 parties had registered to run in the polls.

"We have already decided to move toward a multiparty democratic system as requested by the people," he said.

But Suu Kyi`s National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide the last time the country voted, will not be on the ballot.

In 2023, the junta-stacked election commission announced the NLD would be dissolved for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law.

"We want the NLD to come back," a senior party member in Myanmar told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"Only then will the situation be good for both sides and the country will have international support."

- How could it be held? -

Since the 2021 coup the junta has been battling an array of pro-democracy guerillas and fighters from ethnic minorities.

Estimates of the extent of government control now vary widely.

But a census to prepare for the vote said data could not be collected from an estimated 19 million of the country`s 51 million people, in part because of "significant security constraints".

Ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters have vowed to block the election in their territory.

Analysts say they could attack voting centres or conduct offensives ahead of polling day.

Saw Thamain Tun, a leader of the Karen National Union -- whose armed wing has fought the Myanmar military for decades -- predicted any new government installed under Min Aung Hlaing would not end the fighting.

"His new government will continue to say to our ethnic armed groups to come and have peace talks," he said.

"If we do not fall in line under his new government, his army will attack us again."

- Why plan it now? -

The military has ruled Myanmar for most of its post-independence history.

Morgan Michaels, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, told AFP that powerful factions within the divided military were pushing for the election as a way of weakening Min Aung Hlaing.

Currently president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, under the country`s 2008 constitution the same person cannot hold both positions, so he would be expected to choose between them, Michaels explained.

"There is internal pressure to do it because internally the military is upset with his leadership and there is a desire for him to be pushed aside," he said.

But Ko Ko Gyi, head of the People`s Party, one of the groups which will participate in the poll, said it was time for a vote because "the state`s problems cannot be solved with arms".

"I believe the election method is the best way to transform this conflict," he said.

"We cannot expect elections to be perfect but we will try to make them as good as possible."

- How might it be seen? -

International monitors have long panned the junta`s proposals for elections.

"A genuine election in Myanmar is impossible under current conditions," said a February joint statement from three monitors including the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

"It will deepen divisions, fuel violence, entrench authoritarian rule and exacerbate the crisis caused by the military coup."

There is also widespread scepticism in Myanmar and abroad that the vote will go ahead as planned.

The country is in a state of emergency, which was extended by six months in January, and no exact date has been set.

"I`ll believe it when I see it," said Michaels.