(BSS/AFP) - Iran`s once-youthful population is aging fast, fuelling economic fears as cash-strapped couples resist a government push for more children.

Driven by rising life expectancy and dramatically declining birth rates,
Iran`s demographic makeup has shifted over the years, mirroring trends across much of the world.

The National Population Research Institute has found that the country`s 86-
million-strong population is ageing five times faster than it is growing,
according to official news agency IRNA, and the UN projects that by 2050 one-
third of Iranians will be 60 or older -- a three-fold increase from 2021.

"With this ongoing trend, the country will face a serious crisis in the
future," Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni warned in December.

He said Iran`s population could shrink by more than half its size over the
next 75 years.

Authorities have launched public campaigns to encourage Iranians to have more
children, with eye-catching billboards and posters periodically popping up
across the country.

"Children, the pulse of our lives!" read one poster, showing a couple with
four children.

A billboard featuring a happy family had the caption: "Life is better when
happy -- having kids is better when you have many."

Shaho Sabbar of the University of Tehran said that the "negative impact" of
Iran`s changing demography "has started to be felt over the past decade".

The long-term impact could be "significant", Sabbar said.

"As the number of working-age individuals declines, Iran may face labour
shortages, reduced economic growth and an increased burden on the younger
generation to support the elderly."

- `Huge undertaking` -

During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the Islamic republic experienced a
baby boom, in part due to a successful government campaign to encourage more
births.

But as the country was struggling to rebuild its economy after the war, the
government reversed its policy, urging Iranian families to have no more than
two children.

Fertility rates have since plummeted, from an average of 6.4 children per
woman to just 1.6 in 2023, National Population Research Institute head
Mohammad Javad Mahmoudi said according to IRNA.

Population growth has also slowed from 1.29 percent in 2011 to just 0.6
percent in 2023, Mahmoudi said.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who initially supported the family
planning policies of the post-war era, later called them a "mistake".

In August, he demanded measures to reverse the decline in births.

"The country needs a young population, and if it suffers the bitter
consequences of population ageing, there is no cure," Khamenei said.

Struggling under the weight of international sanctions, high unemployment and
soaring prices, many Iranians have felt discouraged from having children.

"Raising a child is a huge undertaking," said Zohreh, a 39-year-old makeup
artist from Tehran, who has been married for seven years.

Giving only her first name, she said her own experience growing up in the
capital was marred by "the poor educational system" and the "dire" state of
the economy following the war.

- `Overwhelming` burden -

Sabbar said that beyond economic concerns, Iran`s greying population could
also herald an "overwhelming" burden on the national healthcare system.

"There will also be a potential pension and social security crisis," he said.

"With fewer working-age individuals, the government may struggle to provide
for the increasing number of retirees."

Authorities have gone to great lengths to encourage young Iranians to start a
family, offering parents incentives such as low-interest housing loans,
financial aid and free healthcare for mothers and children.

But the overall impact of the authorities` push "has been limited", said
Sabbar.

A 38-year-old public employee who gave only his last name, Etemadi, for fear
of repercussions, said the incentives "are either too difficult to obtain or
very small compared to the cost of raising a child".

He has three children, all born before the financial incentives were
introduced in 2021, and so has been unable to benefit from them.

Other government measures enacted that same year include the launch of a
dating app aimed at forging "lasting" unions.

Authorities in 2021 also restricted the distribution of contraceptives and
imposed strict limits on pregnancy screenings to detect genetic diseases.

Zohreh, the makeup artist, said the limits on pregnancy tests discouraged
her, fearing that without them, "my child would be born with defects".

Sabbar said the solution lies far beyond family planning.

The government should "create a more favourable environment that makes
saving, investment and immigration plausible", he said.